Guinea is set to contribute 28.4% of total global bauxite supply in 2024, with 119.5mt. The main bauxite mines in Guinea, including the SMB-Winning Boke, Sangaredi, Boffa, GAC and Garafiri projects, collectively yielded 79mt of bauxite in 2023, according to GlobalData’s research.
Following a significant increase in 2023, the country is expected to see a 3.9% growth in bauxite production in 2024. GlobalData states that this growth will largely be driven by the launch of Dynamic Mining’s Bon Ami project in the second quarter of 2024. The project, currently under construction, has an annual production capacity of 4.5mt per year and a mine life of up to 14 years, with an estimated capital expenditure of $138m.
Additionally, an anticipated rise in production from the Sangaredi, GAC, Garafiri and Boffa mines will further boost the country’s bauxite output.
“China and Indonesia are prominent players in the global bauxite market, with China being the largest consumer and importer of bauxite. China’s dependence on Guinea for bauxite stems from its substantial need for high-quality bauxite to support its aluminium industry, as its domestic reserves are inadequate to meet this demand,” Gayathri said.
“On the other hand, Indonesia does not heavily rely on Guinea for bauxite. Instead, it has prioritised developing its own mining and refining capabilities to support its aluminium industry and decrease its reliance on imports.”
China’s bauxite production is decreasing, and Indonesia has halted exports to prioritise domestic processing, resulting in an increased dependence on Guinea’s supply.
According to media reports, the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) has expressed concerns about the heightened risks associated with bauxite supplies from Guinea, emphasising the growing reliance on a single source for this raw material.
Last year, Guinea supplied 70% of China’s bauxite imports used in aluminium production. Consequently, this situation has left Chalco highly vulnerable to potential disruptions in Guinea. “Our overseas expansion exposes us to political and economic risks, commercial instability and events beyond our control in the countries in which we plan to operate,” Chalco said in its annual fiscal report.
Some of the risks associated with Guinea mining for bauxite are fluctuations in supply caused by local policy changes and strikes, which can create supply chain uncertainties for countries heavily reliant on imports.
“Guinea’s bauxite supply has been significantly affected by local policy changes, including political instability and government intervention,” Gayathri said. “For example, Guinea’s statewide strike on 26 February 2024 impacted the country’s key mining operations, including bauxite. Workers sought increased wages, the removal of web restrictions and the release of an imprisoned trade union leader.”